Dust Control & Environment, Mining and Heavy Industries

Mixed outlook for coal, oil: BP

Nathan Tinkler says Australia is still in a good position in the coal sector, relative to its competition. Photo: WICET

BP has forecast global demand for coal to peak in the mid-2020s, but says demand for oil should continue to grow until almost 2040.

According to an AFR report, BP experts believe the demand for oil will grow despite an increased uptake in electric cars.

The energy conglomerate’s soft outlook for coal has been driven by China’s rapid move away from the fossil fuel.

“Particularly what we have been surprised about is the pace of change in China,” BP chief economist Spencer Dale was quoted as saying.

“One of the biggest revisions we’ve made or the biggest surprises we’ve had is the extent to which coal-fired power generation in China has been reduced over the last few years.”

Some of China’s depleted demand for coal is going to be offset by India, but with demand also projected to fall in Europe and the US, the overall outlook is looking weaker.

In the oil sector, however, BP says it expects demand to grow by 15 million barrels per day over the next two decades, to reach around 110 million barrels per day by 2035.

The massive growth expected in electric cars is still not forecast to outpace the growth of traditional vehicles, BP has reportedly said.

“The growth in electric cars is not a game-changer for oil demand in the next 20 years,” Dale was quoted as saying.

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